Al-Hazm vs NEOM Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Hazm 1-1 NEOM.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Al-Hazm, 27% draw, 45% NEOM — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEOM at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Hazm vs NEOM
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 36J. StaněkG
- 4Sultan TankerD
- 17Bonheur MugishaD
- 34Abdulrahman Al-DakheelD
- 2Saud Al RashedM
- 28S. BendebkaM
- 24A. BahM
- 27Ahmed Al NakhliM
- 22Abdul Aziz Sulaiman Al DhuwayhiF
- 10A. SayoudF
- 29Aboubacar DiakiteF
- 88K. AbduljawadF
- 77M. Al HamdaniF
- 13Abdullah Al ShanqitiD
- 5Mohammed IssaD
- 95Jaser AteeqD
- 3A. Ben HmidaD
- 8M. KonatéM
- 23Ibrahim ZaidG
- 11Waleed Al ShanqitiF
- 1M. BułkaG
- 15Abdulmalik Al OyayariD
- 5M. SarrD
- 44N. ZézéD
- 27Islam HawsawiD
- 77Muhannad Al SaadM
- 23V. VadaM
- 72A. KonéM
- 7G. MasourasM
- 91A. LacazetteF
- 70Haroune CamaraF
- 33Abdulrahman DagririG
- 4Khalifah Al DawsariD
- 14Khalil Al AbsiF
- 2Mohammed Al BuraykD
- 55Muhammad Al DosariD
- 8Faisal Al GhamdiM
- 6A. Al HassanM
- 75Khalid Al RammahD
- 10S. BenrahmaF
Form going into Al-Hazm vs NEOM
Al-Hazm
- L1-3away to Al-Ahli Jeddah11 September 2026
- W1-0Al Taawon8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Faisaly FC5 September 2026
NEOM
- W4-2Al-Fateh13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Hilal7 September 2026
- W3-0Al Khaleej Saihat3 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Riyadh28 August 2026
What these results say
- NEOM won 3 of these 4 matches.
- NEOM scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Hazm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 5 | NEOM | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Hazm vs NEOM
- 10 October 2026Al-Hazm 1–1 NEOMPro League
- 28 April 2026NEOM 1–1 Al-HazmPro League
- 4 January 2026Al-Hazm 1–2 NEOMPro League
- 23 September 2025Al-Hazm 2–1 NEOMKing's Cup
- 24 February 2025Al-Hazm 0–2 NEOMDivision 1
- 5 October 2024NEOM 2–0 Al-HazmDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al-Hazm and NEOM
Al-Hazm
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
NEOM
GoalsAssists
- A. Lacazette51
- A. Koné41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.