Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Hilal 3-2 Al-Ittihad.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Al-Hilal, 21% draw, 16% Al-Ittihad — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hilal at 63% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 37Y. BounouG
- 2Mohammed Mater Mohsin MahzariD
- 87Hassan TambaktiD
- 3K. KoulibalyD
- 19T. HernándezD
- 70Saïmon BouabréM
- 8Rúben NevesM
- 6Nasser Al DawsariM
- 38C. SummervilleM
- 7Gabriel MartinelliF
- 11O. WatkinsF
- 27Sultan MandashF
- 18Murad Al HawsawiM
- 24Moteb Al HarbiD
- 77Nawaf Al HabashiM
- 33Mohammed Al OwaisG
- 96Suhayb Al ZaidM
- 72S. DahalF
- 28Mohamed KannoM
- 78Ali LajamiD
- 1P. RajkovićG
- 13Muhannad Al ShanqitiD
- 2Danilo PereiraD
- 4J. ŠimićD
- 25F. AbdiD
- 22Marwan Al SahafiM
- 30D. LopyM
- 27Ahmed Al GhamdiM
- 34S. BergwijnM
- 10H. AouarF
- 21Y. En-NesyriF
- 32Ahmed Al JulaydanD
- 6Saad Al MosaD
- 29Farhah Al ShamraniM
- 11Saleh Al ShehriF
- 8Mukhtar AliM
- 42Muath FaqeehiD
- 60Rakan KaabiM
- 50Mohammed Al AbsiG
- 23G. WijnaldumM
Form going into Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad
Al-Hilal
- W6-0away to Al Taawon12 September 2026
- L0-2NEOM7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al Shabab4 September 2026
- W3-0Al-Ahli Jeddah1 September 2026
Al-Ittihad
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC11 September 2026
- W2-1Al-Fayha8 September 2026
- W2-1Al-Nassr5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Fateh29 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Hilal won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Hilal scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Hilal kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Ittihad went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Al-Ittihad won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Ittihad scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 21 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad
- 10 October 2026Al-Hilal 3–2 Al-IttihadPro League
- 21 February 2026Al-Hilal 1–1 Al-IttihadPro League
- 24 October 2025Al-Ittihad 0–2 Al-HilalPro League
- 22 February 2025Al-Ittihad 4–1 Al-HilalPro League
- 7 January 2025Al-Hilal 2–2 Al-IttihadKing's Cup
- 21 September 2024Al-Hilal 3–1 Al-IttihadPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Hilal and Al-Ittihad
Al-Hilal
GoalsAssists
- O. Watkins44
- S. Milinković-Savić41
- Gabriel Martinelli40
Al-Ittihad
GoalsAssists
- S. Bergwijn51
- Y. En-Nesyri50
- G. Ilenikhena42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.