Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Fayha 1-1 Al Riyadh.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Al-Fayha, 26% draw, 29% Al Riyadh — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Fayha at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 52O. MosqueraG
- 22Mohammed Al BaqawiD
- 2Mukhir Al RashidiD
- 25O. ColleyD
- 24Ahmed BamasudD
- 6Ali Al HussainM
- 5Hugo MouraM
- 30Alfa SemedoM
- 23JasonF
- 17LázaroF
- 10F. SakalaF
- 12Turki Al JaadiD
- 1Abdulraoof Al-DeqeelG
- 14Mansor Al BesheM
- 9Malek Al AbdulmanamF
- 7Nawaf Al-HarthiM
- 21Ziyad Al SahafiD
- 43Fahad Majed AlhubayshiM
- 40Yago SantanaM
- 77R. EnadF
- 82M. BorjanG
- 2Sultan AlessaD
- 5Hossam MajrashiD
- 26R. AbascalD
- 12Sulaiman HazaziD
- 6K. KeitaM
- 43B. MensahM
- 10T. OkouM
- 22V. LekhalM
- 14Essam BahriM
- 11H. Al AliF
- 3Y. M. Al MusaD
- 17Hussain Al-RaqwaniF
- 19A. M. Al HarthiM
- 97Emad FidaG
- 7TrézéguetM
- 32Awad DahalD
- 23Hussain QasimD
- 79F. Al JayzaniM
- 13Osama Al BowardiD
Form going into Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh
Al-Fayha
- D0-0away to Al Shabab12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad8 September 2026
- D2-2Al Kholood3 September 2026
Al Riyadh
- W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Khaleej Saihat7 September 2026
- L0-5away to Al-Ahli Jeddah4 September 2026
- W1-0NEOM28 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Riyadh kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al Riyadh had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh
- 11 October 2026Al-Fayha 1–1 Al RiyadhPro League
- 4 May 2026Al-Fayha 4–2 Al RiyadhPro League
- 10 January 2026Al Riyadh 1–1 Al-FayhaPro League
- 26 February 2025Al Riyadh 0–0 Al-FayhaPro League
- 29 September 2024Al-Fayha 2–0 Al RiyadhPro League
- 15 March 2024Al-Fayha 1–1 Al RiyadhPro League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.