Al Shabab vs Al Taawon Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Shabab 3-0 Al Taawon.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Al Shabab, 27% draw, 35% Al Taawon — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Shabab at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Shabab vs Al Taawon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DiawG
- 17Mohammed Fuad Ibrahim Al ThaniD
- 4T. JedvajD
- 55Ali Al BulayhiD
- 12S. Al AnziD
- 37A. MatuqM
- 8J. BrownhillM
- 29Y. AdliM
- 10Y. CarrascoM
- 9Roger MartínezF
- 49Ricardo MathiasF
- 99Hamad Al-KhorayefF
- 27Abdullah Al HawsawiD
- 21Dhari Al AnaziD
- 40Ali Al AsmariM
- 33Mohammed Al MahasnehG
- 6Awad Al NashriM
- 2Mohammed Al ShwirekhD
- 3M. BarryD
- 97Mourad KhodariF
- 1MailsonG
- 40Ibrahim MahnashiD
- 5Z. BelaïdD
- 32Muteb Al MufarrijD
- 88M. PetkovD
- 7Mohammed Al KuwaykibiM
- 16Faris Al GhamdiM
- 18A. El MahdiouiM
- 8P. GuiagonM
- 10N. BajramiF
- 9A. Hamed AllahF
- 17Mohammed Al AqelF
- 70A. HendiM
- 4Nasser Al HaleelD
- 6Mohammed Bassam Al HurayjiD
- 30Abdullah Al JadaniG
- 45Mohammed Al SaediM
- 93Awn Al SaluliD
- 23Rakan Al TulayhiM
- 47Y. El BahraouiF
Form going into Al Shabab vs Al Taawon
Al Shabab
- D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al Kholood9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Hilal4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm30 August 2026
Al Taawon
- L0-6Al-Hilal12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Hazm8 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Fateh5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Nassr28 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Shabab did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al Shabab conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al Shabab had two goals or fewer.
- Al Taawon did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al Taawon failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al Taawon conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Shabab vs Al Taawon
- 11 October 2026Al Shabab 3–0 Al TaawonPro League
- 3 May 2026Al Shabab 1–5 Al TaawonPro League
- 9 January 2026Al Taawon 2–0 Al ShababPro League
- 22 February 2025Al Taawon 2–2 Al ShababPro League
- 21 September 2024Al Shabab 1–0 Al TaawonPro League
- 18 May 2024Al Taawon 1–0 Al ShababPro League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.