Şamaxı FK
vs
Safa Baku
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Şamaxı FK 1–0 Safa Baku
The model makes it 55% Şamaxı FK, 28% draw, 17% Safa Baku — fair odds of 1.82, 3.57 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Şamaxı FK 1.61, Safa Baku 0.67.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Şamaxı FK: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Şamaxı FK are 7th on 10 points from 7 games; Safa Baku are 11th on 3 points from 7 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Şamaxı FK are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Zira.
- Safa Baku have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Turan.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Şamaxı FK at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
- D1-1away to Zira10 October 2026
- W2-1Araz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sumqayıt12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Kapaz4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Qabala29 August 2026
Safa Baku
- L0-1Turan11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Qarabag18 September 2026
- L0-3Sabah FA14 September 2026
- L1-4away to Neftchi Baku5 September 2026
- L0-1Imisli FK29 August 2026
What these results say
- Şamaxı FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Şamaxı FK | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Şamaxı FK
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
Safa Baku
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 74% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
The two sides
Şamaxı FK carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.08 for Safa Baku. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Şamaxı FK and 0.67 for Safa Baku. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Şamaxı FK rate 0.55 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Safa Baku rate 0.37 and 1.80.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Şamaxı FK the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Şamaxı FK against 0.67 for Safa Baku. Şamaxı FK's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/1.8 for Safa Baku.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Şamaxı FK at home · Safa Baku away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Şamaxı FK 7, Safa Baku 7.
Şamaxı FK score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Safa Baku have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Şamaxı FK
- at Imisli FK25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 37%
- vs Neftchi Baku31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 26%
- at Sabah FA7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 10%
- vs Turan21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 35%
- vs Qabala28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 53%
Safa Baku
- vs Kapaz24 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 34%
- at Sumqayıt31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- vs Araz7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 37%
- vs Qabala21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 37%
- at Imisli FK28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.