Qarabag
vs
Neftchi Baku
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Qarabag 2–1 Neftchi Baku
The model makes it 50% Qarabag, 24% draw, 26% Neftchi Baku — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Qarabag 2.00, Neftchi Baku 1.30.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Qarabag are 3rd on 16 points from 6 games; Neftchi Baku are top on 16 points from 7 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Qarabag are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Imisli FK.
- Neftchi Baku are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Sabah FA.
- Last 6 meetings: Qarabag 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 April 2026, ended Neftchi Baku 2–1 Qarabag.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Qarabag at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
- W2-0away to Imisli FK11 October 2026
- W1-0Safa Baku18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zira13 September 2026
- W3-2Araz6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sumqayıt31 August 2026
Neftchi Baku
- D0-0Sabah FA9 October 2026
- W3-0away to Qabala18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Imisli FK11 September 2026
- W4-1Safa Baku5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Zira30 August 2026
What these results say
- Qarabag went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Qarabag scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Qarabag won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Qarabag | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 |
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Qarabag
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 28% today
Neftchi Baku
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 16% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku
- 30 April 2026Neftchi Baku 2–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 26 April 2026Neftchi Baku 1–5 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 9 November 2025Qarabag 2–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 19 April 2025Qarabag 3–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 16 February 2025Neftchi Baku 0–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 1 December 2024Neftchi Baku 0–3 QarabagPremyer Liqa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Qarabag carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.7 for Neftchi Baku. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Qarabag and 1.30 for Neftchi Baku. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qarabag rate 0.97 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Neftchi Baku rate 0.93 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Neftchi Baku, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Qarabag a 28.1% chance of the title and Neftchi Baku 16.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qarabag the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Qarabag against 1.30 for Neftchi Baku. Qarabag's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.27 for Neftchi Baku.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Qarabag at home · Neftchi Baku away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Qarabag 6, Neftchi Baku 7.
Neftchi Baku score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Qarabag have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Qarabag
- at Sabah FA25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 24%
- at Qabala31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 62%
- vs Turan7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 58%
- at Kapaz21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 58%
- vs Sumqayıt28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 73%
Neftchi Baku
- vs Turan24 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 55%
- at Şamaxı FK31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 47%
- vs Kapaz7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 71%
- at Araz21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 60%
- vs Zira28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.