Sumqayıt
vs
Araz
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Sumqayıt 2–1 Araz
The model makes it 56% Sumqayıt, 22% draw, 22% Araz — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Sumqayıt 2.33, Araz 1.28.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Sumqayıt: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sumqayıt are 8th on 5 points from 6 games; Araz are bottom on 2 points from 7 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Sumqayıt are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Qabala.
- Araz have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Kapaz.
- Last 6 meetings: Araz 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Sumqayıt 2–1 Araz.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sumqayıt vs Araz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sumqayıt at 56% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sumqayıt vs Araz
Sumqayıt
- W4-1Qabala10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kapaz20 September 2026
- D1-1Şamaxı FK12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Turan6 September 2026
- L0-1Qarabag31 August 2026
Araz
- L0-2Kapaz9 October 2026
- L1-2away to Şamaxı FK20 September 2026
- D2-2Turan13 September 2026
- L2-3away to Qarabag6 September 2026
- L0-1Sabah FA31 August 2026
What these results say
- Sumqayıt conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sumqayıt failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sumqayıt scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Araz did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Araz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sumqayıt | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Araz | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sumqayıt
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
Araz
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 63% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sumqayıt vs Araz
- 9 May 2026Sumqayıt 2–1 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 15 February 2026Araz 1–0 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 2 November 2025Sumqayıt 3–2 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 7 April 2025Araz 2–0 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 1 February 2025Sumqayıt 0–0 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 10 November 2024Araz 1–0 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
The two sides
Sumqayıt carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.18 for Araz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.33 goals for Sumqayıt and 1.28 for Araz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sumqayıt rate 0.66 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Araz rate 0.56 and 2.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sumqayıt the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Sumqayıt against 1.28 for Araz. Sumqayıt's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.17 for Araz.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sumqayıt at home · Araz away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Sumqayıt 6, Araz 7.
Sumqayıt score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Araz have let in 3 there.
Araz score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Sumqayıt have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sumqayıt
- at Zira23 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 24%
- vs Safa Baku31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 58%
- at Imisli FK7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 38%
- vs Sabah FA21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- at Qarabag28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 11%
Araz
- vs Qabala23 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 46%
- vs Zira31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 31%
- at Safa Baku7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 34%
- vs Neftchi Baku21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 19%
- at Sabah FA28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 5%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.