Padova vs Carrarese Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Padova 0-2 Carrarese.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Padova, 30% draw, 26% Carrarese — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Padova at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Padova vs Carrarese
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22A. SorrentinoG
- 32F. SgarbiD
- 5M. LovatoD
- 27Alessandro DellavalleD
- 17A. CapelliM
- 8P. FusiM
- 21E. ZuelliM
- 10G. CaprariM
- 34M. CocchiM
- 20M. BortolussiF
- 9L. MoroF
- 7K. VarasM
- 18E. SillettiD
- 25N. GalazziM
- 23F. Di MarianoM
- 90G. ArtisticoF
- 6G. GiuntiM
- 15K. LasagnaF
- 74D. MarcoliniM
- 1L. MouquetG
- 1S. PizzignaccoG
- 13F. RuggeriD
- 6F. OlianaD
- 33F. RealeD
- 7N. BelloniM
- 18Nicolás SchiaviM
- 23M. BraunöderM
- 77G. ParlantiM
- 73J. RouhiM
- 9F. AbiusoF
- 10T. RubinoF
- 30N. RavagliaG
- 66P. PinelliM
- 28J. MartiniM
- 91G. MarconiF
- 78Tommaso GuercioD
- 12G. GarofaniG
- 32M. FinottoF
- 70N. CudrigF
- 11M. CisséF
Form going into Padova vs Carrarese
Padova
- L1-2away to Palermo19 September 2026
- W1-0Ascoli12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
- D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
Carrarese
- L0-1Benevento19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Catanzaro12 September 2026
- L0-1Empoli5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ascoli29 August 2026
What these results say
- Padova scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Padova failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Padova conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Carrarese did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Carrarese conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Carrarese had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Padova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Padova vs Carrarese
- 11 October 2026Padova 0–2 CarrareseSerie B
- 10 February 2026Padova 1–0 CarrareseSerie B
- 31 August 2025Carrarese 0–0 PadovaSerie B
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.