Avellino vs Sampdoria Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Avellino 4-1 Sampdoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Avellino, 30% draw, 26% Sampdoria — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Avellino at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Avellino vs Sampdoria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50T. MartinelliG
- 4A. IzzoD
- 23M. VenturiD
- 56P. EnriciD
- 2F. MissoriM
- 20M. PalumboM
- 6L. PalmieroM
- 39M. BesaggioM
- 27B. MoruzziM
- 10R. RussoF
- 9W. CheddiraF
- 30E. AdamoM
- 18Thomas BerenbruchM
- 14T. BiasciF
- 5A. Di BitontoD
- 77S. Di PaoloF
- 16G. FaticantiM
- 99A. FavilliF
- 1A. IannarilliG
- 7L. PandolfiF
- 1P. VindahlG
- 29A. Di PardoD
- 3S. GartenmannD
- 15F. Delli CarriD
- 7M. CicconiD
- 6L. HendersonM
- 45A. MakoumbouM
- 16Y. VerschaerenM
- 14Yann KaramohM
- 10L. InsigneM
- 9T. LauritsenF
- 99G. TutinoF
- 11T. BegićF
- 42Leonardo CosiF
- 23F. DepaoliD
- 25A. FerrariD
- 96S. MassoloG
- 43K. MbabuD
- 12Andrey KrastevG
- 13L. RavanelliD
Form going into Avellino vs Sampdoria
Avellino
- L1-3away to Ascoli19 September 2026
- D1-1Palermo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
- W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026
Sampdoria
- W2-1Catanzaro19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mantova13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Palermo7 September 2026
- L1-2Juve Stabia29 August 2026
What these results say
- Avellino scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sampdoria conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sampdoria failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sampdoria scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Avellino vs Sampdoria
- 22 March 2026Sampdoria 2–1 AvellinoSerie B
- 10 January 2026Avellino 2–1 SampdoriaSerie B
Leading scorers: Avellino and Sampdoria
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo42
- M. Besaggio30
Sampdoria
GoalsAssists
- L. Insigne30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.