Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Vila Nova 0-0 Cuiaba.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Vila Nova, 30% draw, 29% Cuiaba — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vila Nova at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
Line-ups
- 1Helton LeiteG
- 22HaynerD
- 3Tiago PagnussatD
- 4Douglas MendesD
- 6HigorD
- 5João VieiraM
- 15DuduM
- 17Everton GaldinoM
- 10Marquinhos GabrielM
- 99JandersonM
- 7André LuísF
- 16Igor CariúsD
- 20Nathan CamargoM
- 9LincolnF
- 8Willian MaranhãoM
- 29DalbersonG
- 31DodôM
- 11Ryan LimaF
- 70Emerson UrsoF
- 21Higor MeritãoM
- 1João CarlosG
- 13João BassoD
- 5CalebeD
- 4Vitor MendesD
- 2Igor InocêncioM
- 30RaulM
- 20David MiguelM
- 36LorenzoM
- 41KauanM
- 77Jean DiasM
- 90Fábio GomesF
- 11ElielF
- 14EricD
- 91LuisãoD
- 97Luiz OtávioM
- 96Pedro HenriqueF
- 27Rodrigo FarofaF
- 29Vinicius PeixotoF
- 70Wesley DiasM
- 12BusattoG
Form going into Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
Vila Nova
- W1-0away to Botafogo SP3 October 2026
- W2-0Londrina25 September 2026
- W1-0America Mineiro18 September 2026
Cuiaba
- W2-0Ponte Preta3 October 2026
- L0-3away to CRB27 September 2026
- W3-0Nautico Recife22 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 61 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
- 14 June 2026Cuiaba 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 24 September 2025Vila Nova 2–2 CuiabaSerie B
- 27 May 2025Cuiaba 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 11 May 2024Cuiaba 4–2 Vila NovaCopa Verde
- 17 April 2024Vila Nova 2–0 CuiabaCopa Verde
- 22 March 2023Cuiaba 1–1 Vila NovaCopa Verde
Leading scorers: Vila Nova and Cuiaba
Vila Nova
GoalsAssists
- Janderson88
- André Luís82
Cuiaba
GoalsAssists
- Kauan63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.