Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Chicago Fire 3-1 Vancouver Whitecaps.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Chicago Fire, 27% draw, 39% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Line-ups
- 44J. CohenG
- 24J. DeanD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 11P. ZinckernagelM
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 42T. D'AvillaM
- 19J. BambaM
- 7M. Haile-SelassieF
- 18J. GómezF
- 5S. RogersD
- 15A. GutmanD
- 25J. GalG
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 35S. OregelM
- 22M. PinedaD
- 29D. PorębaM
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 70Rui ModestoD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 8O. LarrazM
- 23A. CvetkovićM
- 7C. SabalyM
- 25R. GauldM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezF
- 77Y. DiabyF
- 41N. DjordjevicD
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 13T. MüllerF
- 15S. RamíirezM
- 3S. AdekugbeD
- 4R. VeselinovićD
Form going into Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Chicago Fire
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 43 | +9 | 48 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 30 | +31 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 7 October 2026Chicago Fire 3–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 1–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 31 August 2023Chicago Fire 0–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 24 July 2022Vancouver Whitecaps 1–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 10 April 2021Vancouver Whitecaps 3–2 Chicago FireFriendlies Clubs
- 23 July 2020Chicago Fire 0–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps
Chicago Fire
GoalsAssists
- H. Cuypers130
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White172
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.