Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo 1-2 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Botafogo, 28% draw, 28% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botafogo at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
Line-ups
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 3Arthur ChavesD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 75HuguinhoM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 6C. MedinaM
- 22H. ZiyechM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 17WarlesonG
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 4M. PonteD
- 29PaulinhoD
- 33L. MonzónD
- 21MarçalD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 7Júnior SantosF
- 90DaniloF
- 1Léo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 5S. SosaM
- 18M. HinestrozaM
- 22A. LescanoM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 9F. ColidioM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 7DavidF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 28AdsonF
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 8JairM
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
Form going into Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
Botafogo
- L0-2away to Mirassol19 September 2026
- W3-2Gremio16 September 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
Vasco da Gama
- W5-0Coritiba19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gremio12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Fluminense6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
- 7 October 2026Botafogo 1–2 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 5 April 2026Vasco da Gama 1–2 BotafogoSerie A
- 8 February 2026Vasco da Gama 2–0 BotafogoCarioca - 1
- 5 November 2025Botafogo 3–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 12 September 2025Botafogo 1–1 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
- 28 August 2025Vasco da Gama 1–1 BotafogoCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Vasco da Gama
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
- Arthur Cabral71
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.