Brazilian Serie A predictions

Friday 16 October — 1 match

• 23:00 UTC Mirassol vs Internacional — model 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.57 · 4.00. Evenly matched

Saturday 17 October — 3 matches

• 21:00 UTC Botafogo vs Chapecoense — model 61% / 22% / 17%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.55 · 5.88. Head-to-head record. Edge: Botafogo
• 21:30 UTC Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba — model 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.17 · 5.56. Head-to-head record. Edge: Atletico Mineiro
• 22:30 UTC Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras — model 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.57 · 2.70. Head-to-head record. Tight game · draw in reach

Sunday 18 October — 5 matches

• 00:00 UTC Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama — model 42% / 29% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.45 · 3.45. Head-to-head record. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Fluminense vs Santos — model 52% / 25% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.00 · 4.35. Head-to-head record. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Gremio vs Cruzeiro — model 36% / 28% / 36%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.57 · 2.78. Head-to-head record. Tight game · draw in reach
• 21:30 UTC Bahia vs Flamengo — model 31% / 29% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.45 · 2.50. Head-to-head record. Edge: Flamengo
• 22:30 UTC Remo vs RB Bragantino — model 37% / 29% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.45 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach

Monday 19 October — 1 match

• 23:00 UTC Corinthians vs Vitoria — model 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.45 · 3.85. Head-to-head record. Evenly matched

Friday 23 October — 1 match

• 23:00 UTC Cruzeiro vs Remo — model 59% / 23% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.69 · 4.35 · 5.56. Edge: Cruzeiro

Saturday 24 October — 6 matches

• 19:30 UTC Internacional vs Botafogo — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 19:30 UTC Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense — model 33% / 27% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.03 · 3.70 · 2.50. Edge: Atletico Paranaense
• 19:30 UTC Mirassol vs Sao Paulo — model 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.45 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 21:30 UTC Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino — model 60% / 25% / 15%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.67 · 4.00 · 6.67. One-sided: Palmeiras
• 21:30 UTC Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians — model 48% / 28% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.57 · 4.17. Evenly matched
• 22:30 UTC Chapecoense vs Fluminense — model 24% / 25% / 51%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.17 · 4.00 · 1.96. One-sided: Fluminense

Sunday 25 October — 1 match

• 00:00 UTC Santos vs Bahia — model 44% / 27% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 3.70 · 3.45. Evenly matched

Monday 26 October — 2 matches

• 22:30 UTC Coritiba vs Gremio — model 42% / 28% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.57 · 3.33. Evenly matched
• 23:00 UTC Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro — model 58% / 25% / 17%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.00 · 5.88. Edge: Flamengo

Wednesday 28 October — 3 matches

• 22:30 UTC Fluminense vs Internacional — model 56% / 25% / 19%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.79 · 4.00 · 5.26. Edge: Fluminense
• 22:30 UTC Santos vs Palmeiras — model 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.57 · 2.44. Edge: Palmeiras
• 22:30 UTC RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense — model 63% / 22% / 15%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.59 · 4.55 · 6.67. Edge: RB Bragantino

Thursday 29 October — 5 matches

• 00:30 UTC Bahia vs Sao Paulo — model 50% / 28% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.57 · 4.55. Evenly matched
• 00:30 UTC Remo vs Botafogo — model 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.57 · 3.03. Evenly matched
• 22:30 UTC Coritiba vs Vitoria — model 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.70 · 3.33. Evenly matched
• 22:30 UTC Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro — model 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.70 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 23:00 UTC Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo — model 27% / 28% / 45%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.70 · 3.57 · 2.22. One-sided: Flamengo

Last round: the model's hits and misses

10–13 October: the model called the result of 7 of 10 matches, 1 of them to the exact score.

• Vasco da Gama 0–0 Remo — the model said 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria — the model said 45% / 30% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Atletico Mineiro 2–1 Santos — the model said 46% / 27% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense — the model said 57% / 24% / 19%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Gremio 1–1 Internacional — the model said 43% / 29% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians — the model said 60% / 26% / 14%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Bahia 1–0 Mirassol — the model said 49% / 27% / 24%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
• Coritiba 1–1 Botafogo — the model said 40% / 26% / 34%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Chapecoense 1–4 Atletico Paranaense — the model said 28% / 25% / 47%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• RB Bragantino 4–2 Cruzeiro — the model said 37% / 29% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result correct.