Flamengo vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Flamengo, 24% draw, 19% Fluminense — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Flamengo vs Fluminense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 8SaúlM
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 30J. FreitasF
- 77Johnny GóesD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 19G. PlataF
- 14A. ValenciaF
- 44VitãoD
- 42AndrewG
- 13DaniloD
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 4IgnacioD
- 29J. MillánD
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 16NonatoM
- 8MartinelliM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 32L. AcostaM
- 30Y. SoteldoM
- 19R. CastilloF
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 22J. FreytesD
- 94OtávioM
- 35HérculesM
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 23GugaD
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 90K. SernaF
- 7HulkF
Form going into Flamengo vs Fluminense
Flamengo
- D2-2away to Santos8 October 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino20 September 2026
- W2-1Corinthians13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
Fluminense
- W4-0Coritiba9 October 2026
- W3-1away to Corinthians20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Flamengo won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fluminense scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fluminense won 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 25 | +33 | 64 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Fluminense
- 11 October 2026Flamengo 1–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 12 April 2026Fluminense 1–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 8 March 2026Fluminense 0–0 FlamengoCarioca - 1
- 25 January 2026Fluminense 2–1 FlamengoCarioca - 1
- 20 November 2025Fluminense 2–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 20 July 2025Flamengo 1–0 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Fluminense
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro166
- Samuel Lino97
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.