St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 6-2 Los Angeles Galaxy.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% St. Louis City, 23% draw, 20% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. BürkiG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 6C. WallemM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 23A. MățanF
- 28M. PerezM
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 11S. BecherF
- 42D. DownsF
- 27F. FallD
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 39B. LundtG
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 7T. OstrákM
- 12J. MarcinkowskiG
- 26Harbor MillerD
- 5J. GlesnesD
- 15J. HaakD
- 3J. AudeD
- 17P. RuizM
- 27E. ThommyM
- 6Sergi RobertoM
- 76T. ElgersmaF
- 7K. FuruhashiF
- 21R. TaylorF
- 25C. GarcésD
- 1N. MićovićG
- 14J. NelsonD
- 28J. PaintsilF
- 18M. ReusM
- 8L. SanabriaM
- 4M. YoshidaD
- 2CalegariD
- 99KlaussF
Form going into St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis City
- W3-0away to New York Red Bulls30 September 2026
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
- W3-2Colorado Rapids27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Minnesota United FC20 September 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St. Louis City | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 54 | 38 | +16 | 51 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- 11 October 2026St. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 23 July 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 1–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 11 February 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 3–0 St. Louis CityFriendlies Clubs
- 14 June 2025St. Louis City 3–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro175
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.