Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Minnesota United FC 2-2 Houston Dynamo.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Minnesota United FC, 28% draw, 34% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Minnesota United FC at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12D. CallenderG
- 52Cherrion ValeriusD
- 15M. BoxallD
- 23M. DugganD
- 21B. HlongwaneM
- 30O. GeneM
- 20W. TrappM
- 13A. MarkanichM
- 16A. JacksonF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 25N. TriantisD
- 3K. DuncanD
- 18M. GonzalezF
- 67C. HarveyM
- 11M. MaloneF
- 94Kayne RizvanovichG
- 5N. RomeroD
- 27D. TaylorD
- 22Marcus CaldeiraF
- 31J. BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 6ArturM
- 30A. BouzatM
- 19M. BoguszF
- 9L. FosterF
- 20GuilhermeF
- 22M. AranaM
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 14D. HolmesM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 21F. NegriD
- 37G. RiveraM
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
- L1-3away to Seattle Sounders27 September 2026
- L2-3Los Angeles Galaxy20 September 2026
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
Houston Dynamo
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 31 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
- 11 October 2026Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 26 June 2025Minnesota United FC 3–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 15 May 2025Houston Dynamo 2–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 April 2024Minnesota United FC 1–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2023Houston Dynamo 0–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah152
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme146
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.