Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Kansas City 3-3 Portland Timbers.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Sporting Kansas City, 23% draw, 43% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.94, 4.35 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portland Timbers at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 18E. KarićD
- 11André LuizM
- 22Z. BassongM
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 14C. HarrisM
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 16J. BartlettD
- 23E. BartlowD
- 2I. JamesD
- 12J. KortkampG
- 1J. PulskampG
- 24R. RamosF
- 99J. ReidD
- 29S. ReidF
- 93M. SuleymanovF
- 41J. PantemisG
- 12R. HernándezD
- 2J. WatermanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 27J. ForyD
- 80J. OrtizM
- 21D. CharáM
- 10David Pereira da CostaM
- 7A. LassiterF
- 14V. JanssenF
- 99K. VeldeF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 25T. MuseG
- 15E. MillerD
- 73Eric IzoitaM
- 22O. FernandezF
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 17C. BassettM
- 28A. AravenaF
- 11AntonyF
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
Sporting Kansas City
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders2 October 2026
- W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
- L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
Portland Timbers
- L1-3away to San Jose Earthquakes27 September 2026
- L0-1Atlanta United FC20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Dallas13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 22 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
- 11 October 2026Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 10 May 2026Portland Timbers 6–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2025Portland Timbers 1–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 13 April 2025Sporting Kansas City 2–4 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 26 May 2024Portland Timbers 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 7 April 2024Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.