Austin vs Nashville SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Austin 1-4 Nashville SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Austin, 27% draw, 49% Nashville SC — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nashville SC at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austin vs Nashville SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. StuverG
- 3M. DeslerD
- 15J. BellD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 11F. TorresM
- 38Ervin TorresM
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 17J. GallagherM
- 10M. UzuniM
- 24Jorge AlastueyF
- 9B. VázquezF
- 22Chris ApplewhiteD
- 32M. BurtonM
- 35M. ĐorđevićD
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 12D. LasG
- 77P. PłachetaM
- 21C. RamirezF
- 14B. ŠabovićM
- 5O. SvatokD
- 99B. SchwakeG
- 31A. NajarD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 3M. WoledziD
- 27R. Baker-WhitingD
- 8P. YazbekM
- 16M. CorcoranM
- 7C. EspinozaM
- 10H. MukhtarM
- 11E. SaadM
- 9S. SurridgeF
- 20E. TagsethM
- 1J. WillisG
- 19A. MuylM
- 14S. MohammedM
- 5J. MaherD
- 41W. MadrigalF
- 2D. LovitzD
- 22J. BauerD
- 6B. AcostaM
Form going into Austin vs Nashville SC
Austin
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
Nashville SC
- W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
- W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Austin | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 31 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 63 | 22 | +41 | 66 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Austin vs Nashville SC
- 11 October 2026Austin 1–4 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2025Austin 1–2 Nashville SCUS Open Cup
- 15 February 2025Austin 2–1 Nashville SCFriendlies Clubs
- 25 August 2024Nashville SC 0–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 18 September 2022Austin 1–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 4 September 2022Nashville SC 3–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Austin and Nashville SC
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Nashville SC
GoalsAssists
- S. Surridge161
- H. Mukhtar146
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.