Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles FC 1-1 Vancouver Whitecaps.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Los Angeles FC, 27% draw, 35% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles FC at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. LlorisG
- 14Sergi PalenciaD
- 5R. PorteousD
- 4E. SeguraD
- 23Y. CheberkoD
- 20S. VasquezM
- 66M. ChoinièreM
- 9A. SiebM
- 7Son Heung-MinM
- 18J. ShaffelburgM
- 99D. BouangaF
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 91N. TafariD
- 19T. BoydF
- 6Igor JesusM
- 81L. WaltaM
- 43ThayllonF
- 33A. LongD
- 12T. HasalG
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 18É. OcampoD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 6R. PrisoD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 20A. CubasM
- 8O. LarrazM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 25R. GauldM
- 77Y. DiabyM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 4R. VeselinovićD
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezF
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 7C. SabalyF
- 23A. CvetkovićM
- 2M. LabordaD
- 70Rui ModestoM
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles FC
- L0-1away to FC Dallas27 September 2026
- D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Kansas City13 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
- L1-3away to Chicago Fire7 October 2026
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 47 | 32 | +15 | 45 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 30 | +31 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 11 October 2026Los Angeles FC 1–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 1 August 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 23 November 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 2–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 30 June 2025Los Angeles FC 0–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 2–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 9 November 2024Los Angeles FC 1–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga155
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White172
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.