Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Colorado Rapids 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Colorado Rapids, 26% draw, 34% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colorado Rapids at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41N. DefreitasG
- 4R. CannonD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 5Loïc WilliamsD
- 29M. NavarroD
- 12J. AtencioM
- 7M. WhittakerM
- 13W. Frederick IIM
- 32D. PhillipF
- 9S. FarhiF
- 10P. AaronsonF
- 77D. YapiF
- 93G. MinoungouF
- 11I. SadiqF
- 99J. TravisD
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 24N. CobbD
- 31A. BeaudryG
- 8H. OjediranM
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 3P. MarieD
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 5D. MunieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 87Vítor CostaD
- 23E. LöwenM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 19P. JuddF
- 11T. WernerF
- 20N. FernandezM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 28B. KikanovicF
- 31Francesco MontaliG
- 2J. RickettsD
- 7O. BoudaF
- 21N. BuckM
Form going into Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
Colorado Rapids
- L2-3away to Los Angeles Galaxy27 September 2026
- D3-3Seattle Sounders20 September 2026
- W1-0CF Montreal13 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
- W3-1Portland Timbers27 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC19 September 2026
- W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 38 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 41 | +10 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 11 October 2026Colorado Rapids 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2026Colorado Rapids 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesUS Open Cup
- 11 May 2025Colorado Rapids 0–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 12 May 2024Colorado Rapids 2–3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 14 April 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–3 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes
Colorado Rapids
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd152
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.