11 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Atletico Mineiro vs Santos Serie A prediction & result

MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Santos.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Atletico Mineiro, 27% draw, 27% Santos — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atletico Mineiro at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Mineiro0%Draw5%Santos95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
🔁Willian Arãoout: Luan Peres
Alan Franco
45+2'
45+4'
Lucas Veríssimo
🔁Victor Hugo Gomes Silvaout: Alan Minda
45'
45'
🔁Benjamín Rollheiserout: Rony
Thiago Borbas
66'
66'
Luan Peres
🔁Alan Francoout: Mamady Cisse
69'
🔁Kevin Castañoout: Maycon de Andrade Barberan
69'
🔁Natanael Moreira Milouskiout: Angelo Preciado
70'
Igor Gomes
70'
72'
🔁Gustavo Henriqueout: João Schmidt
72'
🔁Gabriel Bontempoout: Philippe Coutinho
🔁Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costaout: Eduardo Pereira Rodrigues
82'
85'
João Schmidt
85'
🔁Evertonout: Álvaro Barreal
88'
⚽Gabriel Barbosaassist: Philippe Coutinho
89'
Gabriel Barbosa
89'
Willian Arão
⚽Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souzaassist: Maycon de Andrade Barberan
90+1'
⚽Thiago Borbasassist: Alan Minda
90+7'

Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Santos

58%Possession42%
21Shots10
5On target3
12Corners3
1.48xG1.14

Goals against chances

Atletico Mineiro2 from 1.48 xGmore than the chances were worth
Santos1 from 1.14 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Mineiro 4-2-3-1
  • 1Gabriel DelfimG
  • 2NatanaelD
  • 3Léo DuarteD
  • 14Vitor HugoD
  • 36K. PasciniD
  • 21A. FrancoM
  • 5AlexsanderM
  • 30Victor HugoM
  • 15K. CastañoM
  • 17Igor GomesM
  • 18T. BorbasF
Substitutes
  • 19ReinierM
  • 39Mamady CisseM
  • 40VitãoD
  • 53Pedro LemosD
  • 6Renan LodiD
  • 27A. MindaF
  • 92DuduF
  • 31RobertG
  • 23A. PreciadoD
Coach: E. Domínguez
Santos 4-2-3-1
  • 1DiógenesG
  • 23RodineiD
  • 4Lucas VeríssimoD
  • 15Willian ArãoD
  • 31G. EscobarD
  • 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
  • 28C. OlivaM
  • 8Gabriel BontempoM
  • 32B. RollheiserM
  • 7EvertonM
  • 9Gabriel BarbosaF
Substitutes
  • 22Á. BarrealM
  • 17G. CaballeroF
  • 11Philippe CoutinhoM
  • 81S. PierriM
  • 45LimaM
  • 14Luan PeresD
  • 5João SchmidtM
  • 34João PauloG
  • 30M. TercerosM
Coach: Cuca

Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Santos

Atletico Mineiro

  • D2-2away to Atletico Paranaense8 October 2026
  • W1-0RB Bragantino3 October 2026
  • D1-1Chapecoense19 September 2026
  • W3-1Fluminense12 September 2026

Santos

  • D2-2Flamengo8 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sao Paulo2 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Remo19 September 2026
  • W2-1Cruzeiro13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Atletico Mineiro went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Atletico Mineiro scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Atletico Mineiro conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Santos went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Santos scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Santos conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Atletico Mineiro3013894135+647
8Santos30119104645+142

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Santos

  • 11 October 2026Atletico Mineiro 2–1 SantosSerie A
  • 16 September 2026Atletico Mineiro 4–2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • 9 September 2026Santos 2–0 Atletico MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • 11 April 2026Santos 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 14 September 2025Atletico Mineiro 1–1 SantosSerie A
  • 17 April 2025Santos 2–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A

The full Atletico Mineiro vs Santos record →

Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Santos

Atletico Mineiro

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.

Santos

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Barbosa143
  • Neymar83

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.