Palmeiras vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Palmeiras 4-1 Corinthians.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Palmeiras, 26% draw, 14% Corinthians — fair odds of 1.67, 3.85 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Palmeiras vs Corinthians
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 26MuriloD
- 15G. GómezD
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 4A. GiayM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 22J. PiquerezM
- 42J. LópezM
- 11J. AriasM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 18MaurícioM
- 32E. MartínezM
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 10PaulinhoF
- 56ArthurD
- 12KhellvenD
- 19R. SosaF
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 14RanieleM
- 7BrenoM
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 49AndreM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 10M. DepayF
- 11VitinhoF
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 77J. LingardM
- 5André RamalhoD
- 35CharlesM
- 29AllanM
- 56Guilherme InácioF
- 61DieguinhoM
- 55I. MachadoD
Form going into Palmeiras vs Corinthians
Palmeiras
- W1-0Bahia9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gremio20 September 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
Corinthians
- L1-2away to Internacional7 October 2026
- L1-3Fluminense20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Flamengo13 September 2026
- L1-2Chapecoense6 September 2026
What these results say
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Palmeiras kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Palmeiras had two goals or fewer.
- Corinthians did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Corinthians scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Corinthians conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 52 | 22 | +30 | 63 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Corinthians
- 11 October 2026Palmeiras 4–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 12 April 2026Corinthians 0–0 PalmeirasSerie A
- 8 February 2026Corinthians 0–1 PalmeirasPaulista - A1
- 31 August 2025Corinthians 1–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 7 August 2025Palmeiras 0–2 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
- 31 July 2025Corinthians 1–0 PalmeirasCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Corinthians
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López94
- Maurício71
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.