Sao Paulo vs Vitoria Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Sao Paulo 2-1 Vitoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 25% Vitoria — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sao Paulo at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23RafaelG
- 28NewtonD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 35SabinoD
- 19Lucas RamonM
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 48D. FerreiraM
- 12IagoM
- 37ArturM
- 43G. SantanaM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 32Pedro LimaD
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 45Lucca Marques AlencarF
- 18WendellD
- 17André SilvaF
- 7Lucas MouraF
- 49Ryan FranciscoF
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 25CacáD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 95CaíqueM
- 33ErickM
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 20Lucas SilvaM
- 91ReneF
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 15WalaceM
- 88Zé VitorM
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 26EdenilsonM
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 77I. LaquintanaM
- 79Renato KayzerF
Form going into Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
Sao Paulo
- L0-2away to Cruzeiro8 October 2026
- L1-2Santos2 October 2026
- W1-0Internacional20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Palmeiras12 September 2026
Vitoria
- W4-0Chapecoense7 October 2026
- L1-3Cruzeiro20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Mirassol13 September 2026
- W1-0Gremio7 September 2026
What these results say
- Sao Paulo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sao Paulo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sao Paulo had two goals or fewer.
- Vitoria scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Vitoria had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
- 11 October 2026Sao Paulo 2–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 11 April 2026Vitoria 2–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 7 December 2025Vitoria 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 9 August 2025Sao Paulo 2–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 25 August 2024Sao Paulo 2–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 5 May 2024Vitoria 1–3 Sao PauloSerie A
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Vitoria
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri101
- Luciano92
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.