Gremio vs Internacional Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 1-1 Internacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Gremio, 29% draw, 28% Internacional — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gremio at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gremio vs Internacional
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1WevertonG
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 82WallaceD
- 4W. KannemannD
- 23MarlonD
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 7C. PavónF
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 11TetêF
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 99J. EnamoradoF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 18João PedroD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 12AnthoniG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 25G. MercadoD
- 18JuninhoD
- 35B. AguirreM
- 5R. VillagraM
- 29Thiago MaiaM
- 26A. BernabéiM
- 28VitinhoM
- 9AlerrandroM
- 10Alan PatrickF
- 49J. BezerraF
- 7J. CarboneroF
- 6Matheus BahiaD
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 23Matheus CunhaG
- 17N. EliassonM
- 30CalebeM
- 27PaulinhoM
- 4F. TorresD
Form going into Gremio vs Internacional
Gremio
- D1-1away to Remo7 October 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Botafogo16 September 2026
- L1-2Vasco da Gama12 September 2026
Internacional
- W2-1Corinthians7 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chapecoense12 September 2026
- L2-3Santos6 September 2026
What these results say
- Gremio did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Gremio scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gremio conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Internacional conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Internacional scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Internacional had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 31 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Internacional
- 11 October 2026Gremio 1–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 3 September 2026Gremio 3–1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil
- 27 August 2026Internacional 0–0 GremioCopa Do Brasil
- 11 April 2026Internacional 0–0 GremioSerie A
- 8 March 2026Internacional 1–1 GremioGaúcho - 1
- 1 March 2026Gremio 3–0 InternacionalGaúcho - 1
Leading scorers: Gremio and Internacional
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius101
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.