Chapecoense
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Chapecoense 1-4 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Chapecoense, 24% draw, 52% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.28, Atletico Paranaense 2.09.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 98AndersonG
- 23DuduD
- 21Kauan Faria GomesD
- 4João PauloD
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 31GarcezM
- 9Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraF
- 20Bruno TubarãoF
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 80Miguel CarvalhoM
- 19David AntunesM
- 3DomaD
- 6ManchaD
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 39RodrigoF
- 14Gabriel WernerG
- 1MycaelG
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 33J. AguirreD
- 37L. EsquivelD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JádsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 21LeozinhoM
- 8João CruzM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 47ChiquetiM
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 23SantosG
- 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
- 70RenanF
- 27J. PortillaM
- 3LéoD
- 2GilbertoD
- 5FelipinhoD
Form going into Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense
- L0-4away to Vitoria7 October 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro19 September 2026
- L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
Atletico Paranaense
- D2-2Atletico Mineiro8 October 2026
- W2-1Bahia20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
What these results say
- Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Chapecoense failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chapecoense scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Atletico Paranaense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 30 | 61 | -31 | 18 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 35 | +14 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense
- 12 October 2026Chapecoense 1–4 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 12 April 2026Atletico Paranaense 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 17 September 2025Chapecoense 2–3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie B
- 9 May 2025Atletico Paranaense 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 13 October 2021Chapecoense 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 27 June 2021Atletico Paranaense 2–2 ChapecoenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.28 goals for Chapecoense and 2.09 for Atletico Paranaense; the game produced 1 and 4.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Leonardo Caetano Silva 6' (Atletico Paranaense), Luiz Gustavo 29' (Atletico Paranaense), Kevin Viveros 31' (Atletico Paranaense), Maurício Garcez 72' (Chapecoense), Kevin Viveros 78' (Atletico Paranaense).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Paranaense the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Chapecoense against 2.09 for Atletico Paranaense. Chapecoense's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.11 for Atletico Paranaense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.