Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Olimpia 1-1 Nacional Asuncion.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Olimpia, 30% draw, 32% Nacional Asuncion — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olimpia at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion
Line-ups
- 12Sebastián LentinellyG
- 27Raúl CáceresD
- 22Juan VeraD
- 15Mateo GamarraD
- 23Esteban MatusD
- 7Fernando CardozoM
- 5Juan Fernando AlfaroM
- 20Eduardo DelmasM
- 19Rubén LezcanoF
- 9Gabriel ÁvalosF
- 35Franco AlfonsoF
- 34Hugo SandovalF
- 17Rodney RedesD
- 26Richard SánchezM
- 33Pedro ZarzaF
- 4Tim PayneD
- 13Lucas VerzaG
- 14Gustavo VargasD
- 3Julio VargasD
- 18Sebastián QuintanaM
- 1Gerardo OrtizG
- 23Carlos EspinolaD
- 22Rodrigo MelgarejoD
- 3Mauro CoronelD
- 29Sebastian VargasD
- 8Fabrizio JaraM
- 25Roberto RamírezM
- 33Orlando Gaona LugoM
- 13Leandro MezaM
- 10Josué ColmánM
- 7Ignacio BailoneF
- 35Elias VilllarG
- 5Gaston BenitezD
- 18Hugo ValdezF
- 24Roque Santa CruzF
- 28Alejandro SamudioF
- 20Rodolfo Arguello BalbuenaD
- 32Francisco PumpidoM
- 17Jordan SantacruzM
- 6Silvio ToralesM
Form going into Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
- W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion28 September 2026
- W3-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-0Sportivo Luqueno13 September 2026
Nacional Asuncion
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano25 September 2026
- W3-02 de Mayo18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rubio NU13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Olimpia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 27 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion
- 6 October 2026Olimpia 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 29 July 2026Nacional Asuncion 2–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 4 April 2026Olimpia 3–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 8 February 2026Nacional Asuncion 1–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 14 September 2025Nacional Asuncion 4–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 6 July 2025Olimpia 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Olimpia and Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
GoalsAssists
- A. Alcaraz71
- S. Quintana41
- H. Sandoval40
Nacional Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- H. Benítez55
- I. Valdez50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.