6 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Astana Arena, Astana
Referee: Kristo Tohver
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe Islands.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Kazakhstan, 32% draw, 33% Faroe Islands — fair odds of 2.86, 3.13 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kazakhstan at 35% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kazakhstan3%Draw94%Faroe Islands3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽Petur Knudsenassist: Jóannes Bjartalíð
Maksim Samorodov
38'
🔁stanislav basmanovout: Yan Vorogovskiy
45'
🔁Ramazan·Karimovout: Artur Shushenachev
45'
52'
Martin Agnarsson
52'
Heini Vatnsdal
53'
🔁Heini Vatnsdalout: Samuel Chukwudi
63'
⚽Géza Dávid Turi
65'
Martin Agnarsson
⚽Sergey Malyy
68'
69'
🔁Petur Knudsenout: Viljormur Davidsen
🔁Nauryzbek Zhagorovout: Zhasulan Amir
73'
🔁Georgiy Zhukovout: Ismail Bekbolat
73'
⚽Nuraly Alipassist: Maksim Samorodov
76'
82'
🔁Áki Samuelsenout: Poul Kallsberg
82'
🔁hanus Sorensenout: Mattias Hellisdal
Sergey Malyy
85'
🔁Bauyrzhan Islamkhanout: Elkhan Astanov
87'

Match stats — Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands

67%Possession33%
24Shots16
4On target4
5Corners8

Line-ups

Kazakhstan 3-4-2-1
  • 12T. AnarbekovG
  • 6A. KassymD
  • 2S. MaliyD
  • 3N. AlipD
  • 14N. ZhagorovM
  • 5I. KuatM
  • 7G. ZhukovM
  • 13S. BasmanovM
  • 10M. SamorodovM
  • 9B. IslamkhanM
  • 19R. KarimovF
Substitutes
  • 4A. AshirbekM
  • 8Z. AmirD
  • 21E. AstanovM
  • 23I. BekbolatF
  • 18D. KaramanM
  • 15D. KasabulatD
  • 1S. PokatilovG
  • 20A. ShirobokovD
  • 17A. ShushenachevF
Coach: J. van 't Schip
Faroe Islands 3-4-3
  • 1M. LamhaugeG
  • 15O. FærøD
  • 16G. VatnhamarD
  • 8H. VatnsdalD
  • 2J. DanielsenM
  • 21G. TuriM
  • 7J. BjartalíðM
  • 13M. AgnarssonM
  • 10Á. SamuelsenF
  • 11P. KnudsenF
  • 20H. SørensenF
Substitutes
  • 19J. BenjaminsenD
  • 4S. ChukwudiD
  • 17Á. DamM
  • 3V. í DavidsenD
  • 22M. HellisdalM
  • 14P. KallsbergF
  • 9J. NielsenF
  • 12A. PetersenG
  • 23B. ReynatrodG
Coach: E. Klakstein

Form going into Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands

Kazakhstan

  • L1-2Moldova2 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Slovakia29 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Faroe Islands26 September 2026

Faroe Islands

  • D1-1Slovakia2 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Moldova29 September 2026
  • D1-1Kazakhstan26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Kazakhstan402257-22
2Faroe Islands40405504

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands

  • 6 October 2026Kazakhstan 2–2 Faroe IslandsUEFA Nations League
  • 26 September 2026Faroe Islands 1–1 KazakhstanUEFA Nations League
  • 18 November 2025Faroe Islands 1–0 KazakhstanFriendlies
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.