6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Belarus vs Finland UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest
Referee: Sascha Stegemann
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Belarus 1-0 Finland.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Belarus, 29% draw, 37% Finland — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Finland at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Belarus96%Draw4%Finland0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Artem Shumanskiy
1'
⚽Zakhar Volkov (pen)
15'
Artem Shumanskiy
27'
German Barkovskiy
27'
Valery Bocherov
38'
🔁Valery Bocherovout: Vitali Lisakovich
45'
🔁Artem Shumanskiyout: Anton Kovalev
45'
58'
🔁adrian svanbackout: Joel Pohjanpalo
58'
🔁Onni Valakariout: Oiva Jukkola
🔁German Barkovskiyout: Trofim Melnichenko
62'
67'
🔁Matti Peltolaout: Santeri Väänänen
67'
🔁Juho Lähteenmäkiout: Benjamin Källman
74'
🔁Ryan Mahutaout: Daniel Håkans
75'
Benjamin Källman
Kirill Pechenin
83'
🔁Aleksandr Selyavaout: Evgeni Yablonski
84'
90+2'
Samuli Miettinen

Match stats — Belarus vs Finland

26%Possession74%
6Shots14
2On target2
1Corners5

Line-ups

Belarus 4-2-3-1
  • 21F. LapoukhovG
  • 5V. KalininD
  • 20Z. VolkovD
  • 13K. GomanovD
  • 2K. PecheninD
  • 4V. BocherovM
  • 8A. SelyavaM
  • 19A. LukashovM
  • 9M. EbongM
  • 7A. ShumanskiyM
  • 11G. BarkovskiyF
Substitutes
  • 10V. GromykoM
  • 15D. GalyataM
  • 22A. KontsevoyM
  • 16A. KovalevM
  • 12A. KudravetsG
  • 17V. LisakovichF
  • 18E. MalashevichM
  • 23T. MelnichenkoF
  • 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
Coach: V. Goncharenko
Finland 4-3-3
  • 1L. HrádeckýG
  • 13J. LähteenmäkiD
  • 15M. TenhoD
  • 5S. MiettinenD
  • 17R. MahutaD
  • 11A. MarhievM
  • 2M. PeltolaM
  • 10L. WaltaM
  • 9A. SvanbäckF
  • 18T. KeskinenF
  • 8O. ValakariF
Substitutes
  • 23L. BergströmG
  • 22D. HåkansM
  • 14O. JukkolaM
  • 19B. KällmanF
  • 4T. MiettinenD
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
  • 12V. SinisaloG
  • 3A. StåhlD
  • 16A. SuhonenM
Coach: J. Friis

Form going into Belarus vs Finland

Belarus

  • W4-0San Marino3 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Finland29 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Albania26 September 2026

Finland

  • W2-1Albania3 October 2026
  • D0-0Belarus29 September 2026
  • W7-0away to San Marino26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Belarus421152+37
3Finland421192+77

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Belarus vs Finland

  • 6 October 2026Belarus 1–0 FinlandUEFA Nations League
  • 29 September 2026Finland 0–0 BelarusUEFA Nations League
  • 9 June 2018Finland 2–0 BelarusFriendlies

Leading scorers: Belarus and Finland

Belarus

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Finland

GoalsAssists

  • L. Walta41
  • J. Pohjanpalo30

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.