Albania vs San Marino UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Albania 2-1 San Marino.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% Albania, 23% draw, 12% San Marino — fair odds of 1.54, 4.35 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Albania at 65% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Albania vs San Marino
Line-ups
- 23M. DajsinaniG
- 4E. HysajD
- 6B. DjimsitiD
- 18A. IsmajliD
- 3M. MitajD
- 16J. ShehuM
- 8K. AsllaniM
- 22S. PiliosM
- 10E. MuçiF
- 7R. ManajF
- 21A. HoxhaF
- 2K. CakeD
- 19M. DakuF
- 5L. HasaM
- 15M. KumbullaD
- 9A. MehmetiM
- 20Y. RamadaniM
- 17T. SeferiF
- 14C. ShpendiF
- 1S. SimoniG
- 1E. ColomboG
- 4F. FabbriD
- 5M. CevoliD
- 6D. RossiD
- 3S. GiocondiD
- 8L. CapicchioniM
- 16C. MeloniM
- 18Balda Enea DellaM
- 10S. ZannoniM
- 14Fausto Marino Salicioni OrtizF
- 11N. GiacopettiF
- 15M. PasoliniD
- 19S. PancottiF
- 20G. BugliD
- 13Lyes HoëlG
- 9Nicholas ProttiF
- 7G. CapicchioniF
- 22M. MularoniM
- 21L. LazzariM
- 17A. GolinucciM
Form going into Albania vs San Marino
Albania
- L1-2away to Finland3 October 2026
- W3-0away to San Marino29 September 2026
- W2-0Belarus26 September 2026
San Marino
- L0-4away to Belarus3 October 2026
- L0-3Albania29 September 2026
- L0-7Finland26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Albania vs San Marino
- 6 October 2026Albania 2–1 San MarinoUEFA Nations League
- 29 September 2026San Marino 0–3 AlbaniaUEFA Nations League
- 8 September 2021Albania 5–0 San MarinoWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 31 March 2021San Marino 0–2 AlbaniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
Leading scorers: Albania and San Marino
Albania
GoalsAssists
- K. Asllani31
San Marino
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.