Sport Recife vs São Bernardo Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Sport Recife 2-1 São Bernardo.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Sport Recife, 28% draw, 28% São Bernardo — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sport Recife at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sport Recife vs São Bernardo
Line-ups
- 26Thiago CoutoG
- 27ClaudinhoD
- 5Marcelo BenevenutoD
- 3Marcelo AjulD
- 76RaíD
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 7Patrick de PaulaM
- 30Chrystian BarlettaM
- 8Juan AlanoM
- 10C. de PenaM
- 19Neto PessoaF
- 80K. AndradeF
- 75A. MaronF
- 40Matheus MirandaD
- 21BrennoG
- 96EdsonD
- 9PerottiF
- 23Zé GabrielM
- 28HabraãoD
- 25ClaysonM
- 1Alex AlvesG
- 97AugustoD
- 35JemersonD
- 90LuizãoD
- 21Hugo SanchesM
- 14Lucas LimaM
- 26EduardoM
- 6ParáM
- 10Fabrício DanielF
- 9Felipe GarciaF
- 29PedrinhoF
- 7LucasF
- 31Lucas FernandesM
- 8FoguinhoM
- 16João Pedro Constancio Dos SantosD
- 37D. DaviF
- 36João Vitor Rodrigues GaldinoM
- 12Júnior OliveiraG
- 27EchaporãF
- 17RomissonM
Form going into Sport Recife vs São Bernardo
Sport Recife
- W2-1away to Athletic Club MG1 October 2026
- L1-3away to Nautico Recife26 September 2026
- W2-1Juventude19 September 2026
São Bernardo
- W3-1CRB2 October 2026
- D0-0away to Novorizontino25 September 2026
- W1-0Atletico Goianiense19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 45 | 35 | +10 | 51 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sport Recife vs São Bernardo
- 14 June 2026São Bernardo 0–0 Sport RecifeSerie B
Leading scorers: Sport Recife and São Bernardo
Sport Recife
GoalsAssists
- Perotti121
- Chrystian Barletta114
São Bernardo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 46 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.