America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC Serie B prediction & result
Final score: America Mineiro 0-1 Fortaleza EC.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% America Mineiro, 27% draw, 51% Fortaleza EC — fair odds of 4.55, 3.70 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortaleza EC at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC
Line-ups
- 19WilliamG
- 31Fábio AlmeidaD
- 4Rafael BarcelosD
- 3L. SosaD
- 25T. OstchegaD
- 88BarretoM
- 55Otavio GoncalvesM
- 20Paulo VictorM
- 77M. SegoviaM
- 7Guilherme ParedeM
- 9WillianF
- 27CássioG
- 45Ricardo SilvaD
- 26ManoelD
- 93J. JiménezM
- 8Felipe AmaralM
- 71Cristian Do Espirito Santo RodriguesD
- 32FilipeD
- 30L. MontesD
- 99Marcelo MacolaF
- 1João RicardoG
- 22MaíltonD
- 3Lucas GazalD
- 6T. CardonaD
- 13Maurício Júnior Lima RodriguesD
- 88Lucas SashaM
- 5PierreM
- 75RodriguinhoM
- 11VitinhoF
- 17Nathan FogaçaF
- 32Luiz FernandoF
- 10Lucas CrispimM
- 9J. MiritelloF
- 23NerisD
- 28PaulinhoD
- 16Pedro HenriqueF
- 29RodrigoM
- 8RonaldM
- 37Ryan GustavoM
- 25Vinícius SilvestreG
Form going into America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC
America Mineiro
- L0-2away to Atletico Goianiense3 October 2026
- L0-1Juventude28 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vila Nova18 September 2026
Fortaleza EC
- D1-1Nautico Recife3 October 2026
- D2-2Athletic Club MG27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Londrina20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | America Mineiro | 33 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 54 | -33 | 17 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC
- 16 June 2026Fortaleza EC 0–3 America MineiroSerie B
- 8 October 2023Fortaleza EC 3–2 America MineiroSerie A
- 31 August 2023Fortaleza EC 2–1 America MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 24 August 2023America Mineiro 1–3 Fortaleza ECCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 20 May 2023America Mineiro 2–1 Fortaleza ECSerie A
- 15 October 2022America Mineiro 1–2 Fortaleza ECSerie A
Leading scorers: America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC
America Mineiro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Fortaleza EC
GoalsAssists
- Maílton82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.