Vitoria vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 4-0 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Vitoria, 29% draw, 28% Chapecoense — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vitoria at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitoria vs Chapecoense
Line-ups
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 25CacáD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 95CaíqueM
- 6E. MartínezM
- 33ErickM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 91ReneF
- 88Zé VitorM
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 2E. BrítezD
- 26EdenilsonM
- 23FabrícioF
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 98AndersonG
- 20Bruno TubarãoD
- 21Kauan Faria GomesD
- 3DomaD
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 27CamiloM
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 31GarcezM
- 9Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraF
- 39RodrigoF
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 80Miguel CarvalhoM
- 30Matheus AurélioG
- 12FernandoD
- 29F. RossiF
- 4João PauloD
- 14Gabriel WernerG
- 15Rafael ThyereD
Form going into Vitoria vs Chapecoense
Vitoria
- L1-3Cruzeiro20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Mirassol13 September 2026
- W1-0Gremio7 September 2026
Chapecoense
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro19 September 2026
- L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 36 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 30 | 61 | -31 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Chapecoense
- 7 October 2026Vitoria 4–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 5 April 2026Chapecoense 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 25 November 2023Chapecoense 3–1 VitoriaSerie B
- 24 July 2023Vitoria 1–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 17 January 2021Vitoria 0–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 17 October 2020Chapecoense 1–1 VitoriaSerie B
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Chapecoense
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene91
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.