RB Bragantino vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result
Final score: RB Bragantino 1-1 Mirassol.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% RB Bragantino, 30% draw, 29% Mirassol — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Bragantino at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — RB Bragantino vs Mirassol
Line-ups
- 18Tiago VolpiG
- 52Ryan TavaresD
- 16Gustavo MarquesD
- 2Guzmán RodríguezD
- 29Juninho CapixabaD
- 28Patrick SilvaM
- 7Eric RamiresM
- 21Lucas BarbosaM
- 47WallaceM
- 11FernandoM
- 8Eduardo SashaF
- 1CleitonG
- 3Eduardo SantosD
- 19BruninhoF
- 5FabinhoM
- 6GabrielM
- 22GustavinhoM
- 32J. HerreraF
- 35Matheus FernandesM
- 9I. PittaF
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 25Neto MouraM
- 27DenilsonM
- 95EdsonM
- 33EduardoM
- 10ChicoM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 80WallissonM
- 96Carlos EduardoF
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 44GabrielD
- 19Gustavo SilvaM
- 5JapaM
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 7ShaylonM
- 90ThomazellaG
Form going into RB Bragantino vs Mirassol
RB Bragantino
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Flamengo20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Botafogo12 September 2026
Mirassol
- W2-0Botafogo19 September 2026
- D2-2Vitoria13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Coritiba6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 40 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Bragantino vs Mirassol
- 7 October 2026RB Bragantino 1–1 MirassolSerie A
- 13 May 2026Mirassol 2–1 RB BragantinoCopa Do Brasil
- 23 April 2026RB Bragantino 1–1 MirassolCopa Do Brasil
- 5 April 2026Mirassol 0–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 21 January 2026Mirassol 0–0 RB BragantinoPaulista - A1
- 1 October 2025Mirassol 1–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.