Croatia vs Spain UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Croatia 1-2 Spain.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Croatia, 28% draw, 49% Spain — fair odds of 4.35, 3.57 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spain at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Croatia vs Spain
Line-ups
- 1D. LivakovićG
- 2J. StanišićD
- 6J. ŠutaloD
- 5L. VuškovićD
- 4J. GvardiolD
- 13N. VlašićM
- 10L. ModrićM
- 18K. JakićM
- 8M. KovačićM
- 14I. PerišićM
- 20I. MatanovićF
- 7D. BeljoF
- 22J. MišićM
- 19Marco PasalicF
- 3M. PongračićD
- 15Mario PasalicM
- 12I. PandurG
- 16M. BaturinaM
- 21L. SučićM
- 11A. BudimirF
- 23Unai SimónG
- 12Marc PubillD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 22Marc CucurellaD
- 16RodriM
- 20PedriM
- 19Lamine YamalM
- 10Dani OlmoM
- 15Álex BaenaM
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF
- 4Iván FresnedaD
- 17Fran GarcíaD
- 2D. HuijsenD
- 3Robin Le NormandD
- 13Josep MartínezG
- 6Mikel MerinoM
- 7Víctor MuñozF
- 11Yeremy PinoM
- 1David RayaG
Form going into Croatia vs Spain
Croatia
- L0-7England3 October 2026
- L1-4away to Spain29 September 2026
- W2-1away to Czechia26 September 2026
Spain
- W3-1Czechia3 October 2026
- W4-1Croatia29 September 2026
- W3-2away to England26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Croatia vs Spain
- 6 October 2026Croatia 1–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
- 29 September 2026Spain 4–1 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
- 15 June 2024Spain 3–0 CroatiaEuro Championship
- 18 June 2023Croatia 0–0 SpainUEFA Nations League
- 28 June 2021Croatia 3–5 SpainEuro Championship
- 15 November 2018Croatia 3–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Croatia and Spain
Croatia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Spain
GoalsAssists
- Lamine Yamal41
- Mikel Merino31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.