6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Moldova vs Slovakia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Zimbru, Chisinau
Referee: Yigal Frid
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Moldova 0-4 Slovakia.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Moldova, 27% draw, 53% Slovakia — fair odds of 5.00, 3.70 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Slovakia at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Moldova0%Draw1%Slovakia99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽David Strelec
Vadim Rață
22'
44'
⚽Tomas Suslovassist: Ivan Mesik
🔁Vadim Rațăout: Daniel Dumbravanu
58'
🔁M. Gherasimencovout: Cristian Dros
58'
60'
⚽Dávid Hanckoassist: Lukáš Haraslín
🔁Nicky Clescencoout: Victor Stina
65'
🔁Vladyslav Babogloout: Mihail Stefan
66'
67'
🔁Ondrej Dudaout: Tomas Rigo
67'
🔁Ivan Schranzout: Leo Sauer
75'
⚽Lukáš Haraslínassist: Leo Sauer
🔁Ioan-Calin Revencoout: Nikita Motpan
76'
81'
🔁David Strelecout: Erik Prekop
82'
🔁Adam Obertout: Lubomír Šatka
82'
🔁Tomas Suslovout: Peter·Pokorny
Iurie Iovu
90'

Match stats — Moldova vs Slovakia

46%Possession54%
17Shots14
5On target6
8Corners3

Line-ups

Moldova 5-3-2
  • 12D. CeleadnicG
  • 21I. RevencoD
  • 4V. BabogloD
  • 18I. IovuD
  • 6M. GherasimencovD
  • 2O. ReabciukD
  • 14Vladimir FrateaM
  • 22V. RaţăM
  • 9S. PerciunM
  • 15Petru PopescuF
  • 20N. CleșcencoF
Substitutes
  • 5C. CucoșD
  • 13S. CojocariM
  • 17O. DavidM
  • 8C. DrosM
  • 19D. DumbrăvanuD
  • 16D. ForovF
  • 23A. KozhukharG
  • 10D. MandrîcencoM
  • 7N. MoțpanM
Coach: L. Popescu
Slovakia 4-2-3-1
  • 23D. GreifG
  • 2I. MesíkD
  • 14M. ŠkriniarD
  • 21A. ObertD
  • 16D. HanckoD
  • 22S. LobotkaM
  • 8O. DudaM
  • 18I. SchranzM
  • 10T. SuslovM
  • 17L. HaraslínM
  • 15D. StrelecF
Substitutes
  • 3D. VavroD
  • 4M. ValjentD
  • 12J. SurovčíkG
  • 7L. SauerF
  • 5Ľ. ŠatkaD
  • 19T. RigoM
  • 20E. PrekopF
  • 6P. PokornýM
  • 13A. KaprálikF
Coach: V. Weiss

Form going into Moldova vs Slovakia

Moldova

  • W2-1away to Kazakhstan2 October 2026
  • D1-1Faroe Islands29 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Slovakia26 September 2026

Slovakia

  • D1-1away to Faroe Islands2 October 2026
  • W2-1Kazakhstan29 September 2026
  • W2-0Moldova26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Moldova411238-54
1Slovakia431092+710

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Moldova vs Slovakia

  • 6 October 2026Moldova 0–4 SlovakiaUEFA Nations League
  • 26 September 2026Slovakia 2–0 MoldovaUEFA Nations League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.