6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Estonia vs Iceland UEFA Nations League prediction & result

A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Referee: David Dickinson
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Estonia 0-0 Iceland.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Estonia, 33% draw, 41% Iceland — fair odds of 3.85, 3.03 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Iceland at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estonia2%Draw95%Iceland3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
Daniel Leo Gretarsson
🔁Joseph Salisteout: Michael Schjonning-Larsen
61'
🔁Mattias Männilaanout: karel mustmaa
61'
🔁Kevor Palumetsout: Mattias Käit
61'
67'
🔁Hörður Magnússonout: Logi Tomasson
67'
🔁Gylfi Sigurðssonout: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
🔁Patrik Kristalout: Maximilian skvortsov
68'
Michael Schjonning-Larsen
84'

Match stats — Estonia vs Iceland

38%Possession62%
13Shots12
3On target1
3Corners7

Line-ups

Estonia 3-5-2
  • 12M. IgonenG
  • 3M. PaskotšiD
  • 2M. KuuskD
  • 5E. TõugjasD
  • 6R. PeetsonM
  • 14P. KristalM
  • 20M. PoomM
  • 10K. PalumetsM
  • 13J. SalisteM
  • 7R. SaarmaF
  • 17M. MännilaanF
Substitutes
  • 1E. GrünvaldG
  • 11M. AinsaluM
  • 4M. KäitM
  • 23F. LiivakM
  • 9Karel MustmaaF
  • 19M. Schjønning-LarsenD
  • 15M. SkvortsovM
  • 8M. SoometsM
  • 21A. TammF
Coach: J. Henn
Iceland 4-2-3-1
  • 12H. ValdimarssonG
  • 4V. PálssonD
  • 16S. ÞórðarsonD
  • 23H. MagnússonD
  • 3D. GrétarssonD
  • 10G. SigurðssonM
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 7H. HaraldssonM
  • 22A. GuðjohnsenM
  • 18M. AndersonM
  • 9O. ÓskarssonF
Substitutes
  • 14B. WillumssonF
  • 2L. TómassonD
  • 5Í. ÞorvaldssonF
  • 11J. ÞorsteinssonF
  • 21A. SigurðssonM
  • 15A. SampstedD
  • 1R. RúnarssonG
  • 20Þ. HelgasonM
  • 17A. GunnarssonM
Coach: A. Gunnlaugsson

Form going into Estonia vs Iceland

Estonia

  • W1-0Luxembourg3 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Bulgaria29 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Iceland26 September 2026

Iceland

  • W3-0Bulgaria3 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Luxembourg29 September 2026
  • D1-1Estonia26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Estonia413021+16
1Iceland422071+68

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estonia vs Iceland

  • 6 October 2026Estonia 0–0 IcelandUEFA Nations League
  • 26 September 2026Iceland 1–1 EstoniaUEFA Nations League
  • 8 January 2023Iceland 1–1 EstoniaFriendlies

Leading scorers: Estonia and Iceland

Estonia

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Iceland

GoalsAssists

  • O. Óskarsson32

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.