Scotland vs Slovenia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Scotland 1-2 Slovenia.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Scotland, 30% draw, 38% Slovenia — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slovenia at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Scotland vs Slovenia
Line-ups
- 1A. GunnG
- 5S. WelshD
- 13J. HendryD
- 4L. BinksD
- 17B. DoakM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 19L. FergusonM
- 8B. GilmourM
- 3A. RobertsonM
- 11R. ChristieM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 20K. BowieF
- 15J. McPakeF
- 23Kristi MontgomeryM
- 14L. MillerM
- 21S. BainG
- 16Findlay CurtisF
- 6J. DoigD
- 22N. PattersonD
- 18L. GrahamD
- 1J. OblakG
- 2Ž. KarničnikD
- 23D. BrekaloD
- 6J. BijolD
- 17D. ZecD
- 13E. JanžaD
- 20A. MatkoM
- 4M. ZabukovnikM
- 22A. ČerinM
- 15D. ŠturmM
- 18Z. VipotnikF
- 11Ž. CelarF
- 21V. DrkušićD
- 10T. ElšnikM
- 19T. HorvatM
- 5S. KuzmićD
- 8S. LovrićM
- 14T. SvetlinM
- 7J. UrbančičD
- 16I. VekičG
Form going into Scotland vs Slovenia
Scotland
- W2-0away to North Macedonia3 October 2026
- L0-3Switzerland29 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovenia26 September 2026
Slovenia
- L1-2away to Switzerland3 October 2026
- W2-0North Macedonia29 September 2026
- D0-0Scotland26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Scotland vs Slovenia
- 6 October 2026Scotland 1–2 SloveniaUEFA Nations League
- 26 September 2026Slovenia 0–0 ScotlandUEFA Nations League
- 8 October 2017Slovenia 2–2 ScotlandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 26 March 2017Scotland 1–0 SloveniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
Leading scorers: Scotland and Slovenia
Scotland
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Slovenia
GoalsAssists
- A. Matko22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.