Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Medellin 0-1 Santa Fe.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Independiente Medellin, 29% draw, 32% Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Medellin at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
Line-ups
- 1S. IchazoG
- 30H. PalaciosD
- 39L. EscorciaD
- 19A. SimarraD
- 26E. MenaD
- 6D. MorenoM
- 14B. PerlazaM
- 34K. KlingerM
- 21A. MarteganiM
- 20J. MontañoM
- 11Y. GonzálezF
- 10D. CatañoM
- 24N. ErazoM
- 18F. FabraD
- 16H. LoboaM
- 33Deimer Estiven Longas RivasG
- 32C. LucumiF
- 4K. MantillaD
- 31D. MorenoM
- 5J. VarelaD
- 1A. MosqueraG
- 13H. PalaciosD
- 18E. OliveraD
- 3V. MorenoD
- 32C. MaflaD
- 77J. ObrianM
- 16D. TorresM
- 7J. TorresM
- 10A. ZapataM
- 9F. FagúndezM
- 19N. BustosF
- 39Cristhian PortocarreroM
- 11H. RodallegaF
- 15I. ScarpetaD
- 38Jimmy MartínezF
- 17M. LoveraF
- 21E. MurilloM
- 43J. CaicedoD
- 12W. AsprillaG
- 6K. ToscanoF
Form going into Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
- D2-2Millonarios30 September 2026
- L0-2away to Junior27 September 2026
- W2-1Jaguares22 September 2026
Santa Fe
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026
- W4-1away to Alianza Valledupar19 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima12 September 2026
What these results say
- Santa Fe won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Santa Fe scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Santa Fe conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 23 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
- 6 October 2026Independiente Medellin 0–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 23 March 2026Santa Fe 2–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 21 October 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 2 October 2025Santa Fe 0–3 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia
- 24 September 2025Independiente Medellin 1–2 Santa FeCopa Colombia
Leading scorers: Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- H. Rodallega142
- N. Bustos115
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.