Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Pasto 0-0 Fortaleza FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Deportivo Pasto, 29% draw, 29% Fortaleza FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Pasto at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC
Line-ups
- 12G. BangueraG
- 33M. GaravitoD
- 2F. TorijanoD
- 5N. GilD
- 27H. GoyesD
- 7J. PerlazaM
- 8E. C. Serje OrozcoM
- 25F. LeysM
- 10D. ChavezM
- 18J. Micolta PiedahitaF
- 19P. Preciado
- 1E. A. Cabezas QuinonezG
- 21D. Osede
- 3J. RiosD
- 15H. MancillaM
- 24K. Santacruz
- 32M. PisanoM
- 11A. IbarguenF
- 17J. MendezF
- 28T. Blandon
- 1W. BarlasinaG
- 16J. CajaresD
- 6Y. DiazD
- 5J. Medina ObandoD
- 15S. CueroD
- 13B. Mejia
- 32M. Vazquez
- 8S. NavarroM
- 28S. VivasM
- 25J. Garcia
- 9J. HerreraF
- 12C. SantanderG
- 2A. CopeteM
- 4E. CabezasD
- 17K. A. Balanta CarabaliM
- 14L. PicoM
- 19F. PulicastroF
- 7I. MontanoF
- 24J. SalasF
- 27J. SinisterraF
Form going into Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
- L0-3away to Chico25 September 2026
- W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026
- W1-0away to America de Cali15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cucuta5 September 2026
Fortaleza FC
- D2-2Deportes Tolima27 September 2026
- L1-4Junior20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares11 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pasto scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
| 17 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC
- 4 October 2026Deportivo Pasto 0–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 25 March 2026Fortaleza FC 1–2 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 24 October 2025Fortaleza FC 2–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 4 May 2025Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 15 September 2024Fortaleza FC 0–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 5 March 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pasto and Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Fortaleza FC
GoalsAssists
- A. Arroyo94
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.