Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad II 2-3 Granada CF.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Real Sociedad II, 28% draw, 28% Granada CF — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad II at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF
Line-ups
- 1Aitor FragaG
- 2Jon GarroD
- 29Iker RoperoD
- 15I. CalderonD
- 3Jon BaldaD
- 14Tomás CarbonellM
- 8Ibai AguirreM
- 7Dani DíazM
- 16Gorka GorosabelM
- 17Lander AstiazaránM
- 18Gorka CarreraF
- 21Jon EceizabarrenaM
- 13T. FolgadoG
- 6A. LebarbierM
- 32Lander OlasagastiG
- 12J. OleagaM
- 20Sydney OsazuwaF
- 19Javier SoroetaF
- 26B. IsasaD
- 38Xuban FernandezF
- 1Alberto FloresG
- 30Juan José Flores CastroD
- 5Manu LamaD
- 23B. GimberD
- 18Sergio LópezM
- 3Diego HormigoM
- 4Rubén AlcarazM
- 6GumbauM
- 33A. GarciaM
- 11José ArnáizF
- 19Chinaza OnouhaF
- 16Diego PampínD
- 32D. RodriguezM
- 7Sergio RodelasF
- 10Jorge PascualF
- 13Raúl LizoainG
- 27M. GambinM
- 22B. DialloD
- 35B. DembeleD
- 2Pau CasadesúsD
Form going into Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF
Real Sociedad II
- L1-3away to AD Ceuta FC26 September 2026
- L0-1Mallorca19 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra12 September 2026
Granada CF
- L2-3FC Andorra26 September 2026
- L2-3away to Leganes20 September 2026
- D1-1Albacete12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF
- 4 October 2026Real Sociedad II 2–3 Granada CFSegunda División
- 22 March 2026Real Sociedad II 0–2 Granada CFSegunda División
- 4 October 2025Granada CF 5–2 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad II and Granada CF
Real Sociedad II
GoalsAssists
- Gorka Gorosabel31
Granada CF
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.