Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Castellón 1-1 AD Ceuta FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Castellón, 23% draw, 16% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Castellón at 61% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC
Line-ups
- 13R. MatthysG
- 11F. CeccheriniD
- 5Alberto JiménezD
- 4A. SienraD
- 18Pablo SantiagoM
- 8BarriM
- 21Álvaro MartínM
- 14Iñigo CórdobaM
- 10Israel SueroM
- 16A. JakobsenM
- 23Varo GarcíaF
- 30M. WillmannD
- 7Raúl SánchezF
- 35Sergi TornerG
- 31Óscar Albiol GinerF
- 12Lucas AlcázarD
- 19Hamza BellariF
- 20Martín CondeD
- 33Miguel Ferrer AlarteF
- 27A. GalaM
- 13Guille VallejoG
- 4Albert CaparrósD
- 6Carlos HernándezD
- 34D. MasD
- 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezM
- 15JoaquínM
- 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
- 3José MatosM
- 8KukiM
- 22K. KonéM
- 9Jordi EscobarF
- 26Arick BetancourtM
- 14Y. BodigerM
- 28Abraham Bueno EspinosaM
- 36José Miguel Gómez BaporiD
- 10Marino IllescasM
- 27U. KonareF
- 1Pedro LópezG
- 20Álex MeléndezM
- 17Mawuli MensahM
Form going into Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC
Castellón
- W2-0away to Leganes28 September 2026
- W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Girona12 September 2026
AD Ceuta FC
- W3-1Real Sociedad II26 September 2026
- D1-1Valladolid20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Castellón | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 20 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC
- 4 October 2026Castellón 1–1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
- 9 May 2026AD Ceuta FC 1–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 14 September 2025Castellón 3–3 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
- 11 February 2024Castellón 2–2 AD Ceuta FCPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 15 October 2023AD Ceuta FC 1–3 CastellónPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
Leading scorers: Castellón and AD Ceuta FC
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Ousmane Camara41
- Israel Suero32
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.