Farense vs Chaves Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Farense 4-0 Chaves.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Farense, 28% draw, 26% Chaves — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Farense at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Farense vs Chaves
Line-ups
- 78Alex PintoD
- 44N. ZolotićD
- 10S. SinghM
- 97F. BuntićG
- 17André CandeiasF
- 29Cláudio FalcãoM
- 22Toni HerreroD
- 27Mattheus OliveiraM
- 11Nélson OliveiraF
- 7João ResendeF
- 37Gonçalo SilvaD
- 36B. AntunesD
- 18Bruno SantosF
- 3Lucas D'AgrellaD
- 43Dário MirandaD
- 5Rodrigo BorgesD
- 6Derick PoloniD
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 8Miguel MeninoM
- 15J. Diazongua NfiniguiM
- 1João ValidoG
- 34Ricardo AlvesD
- 30CostinhaF
- 19Gilberto GarcíaM
- 5Kiko Vilas BoasD
- 23Léo AlabáD
- 9Marcos MaiaF
- 10André RodriguesF
- 18Wilson TavaresF
- 29M. TounkaraD
- 16D. YearwoodM
- 17RobertoF
- 11Pedro PelágioM
- 8João TeixeiraM
- 2A. HerbertD
- 88M. GudžulićG
- 99GBF
- 80mohamed fofanaM
- 7R. EsajasD
- 4Bruno RodriguesD
Form going into Farense vs Chaves
Farense
- D0-0away to AVS13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting CP B30 August 2026
- D1-1Felgueiras 193224 August 2026
Chaves
- W1-0Feirense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Felgueiras 193230 August 2026
- D2-2AVS23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Farense vs Chaves
- 4 October 2026Farense 4–0 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 22 February 2026Chaves 2–0 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 28 September 2025Farense 0–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 4 February 2024Chaves 1–1 FarensePrimeira Liga
- 26 August 2023Farense 5–0 ChavesPrimeira Liga
- 30 April 2022Farense 1–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.