Penafiel vs AVS Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Penafiel 1-2 AVS.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Penafiel, 26% draw, 30% AVS — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Penafiel at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Penafiel vs AVS
Line-ups
- 1Miguel OliveiraG
- 5Jaime SánchezD
- 6Adrián PicaD
- 2Iano ImbeneD
- 27Gonçalo NegrãoD
- 21Pedro SáM
- 8Àlex CarbonellM
- 7Douglas BorelD
- 17João PintoF
- 9Max SvenssonF
- 10DavoF
- 99ClaudioF
- 14Jorge MeréD
- 4João MiguelD
- 3Cláudio SilvaD
- 23Duarte OliveiraD
- 38M. RamonM
- 13Eric PuertoG
- 64tiago sampaioD
- 33Ricardo SchutteF
- 1Dani RebolloG
- 97Matheus PivôD
- 3L. RosićD
- 26Bernardo CondeD
- 12L. RivasD
- 70RoniM
- 88F. AlmeidaD
- 80Hiago SantosM
- 19Lobato RafaelF
- 9Rodrigo PinhoF
- 30Talles WanderF
- 28André SousaD
- 25RaulG
- 6Carlos PonckD
- 49P. PimentelM
- 7Guilherme NeivaF
- 17R. N'doF
- 8Jorge MeirelesF
- 4Davi SchuindtD
- 22Diogo BrasidoD
Form going into Penafiel vs AVS
Penafiel
- W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026
- W4-1Academica5 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC Porto B30 August 2026
- W2-0Sporting CP B23 August 2026
AVS
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa7 September 2026
- W2-0Feirense30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chaves23 August 2026
What these results say
- Penafiel won every one of these 4 matches.
- Penafiel scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Penafiel had three goals or more.
- AVS failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- AVS scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Penafiel vs AVS
- 3 March 2024Penafiel 0–1 AVSSegunda Liga
- 9 October 2023AVS 1–0 PenafielSegunda Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.