Amarante vs Portimonense Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Amarante 1-2 Portimonense.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Amarante, 29% draw, 29% Portimonense — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amarante at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Amarante vs Portimonense
Line-ups
- 65Diogo FigueiredoG
- 3Feliciano MendesD
- 4João FilipeD
- 2Gonçalo CunhaD
- 28Diogo CostaD
- 26A. ZangreM
- 8TokinhoM
- 5Joao RicardoF
- 78Simão SilvaM
- 91Rudi AlmeidaF
- 88Rúben AlvesF
- 1Rafael FloresG
- 51Diogo FernandesG
- 15Rodrigo BeirãoD
- 36Ian CustódioD
- 6Rodrigo GuedesM
- 85Nito GomesD
- 14A. IdacheF
- 9cardosoM
- 16Rodrigo CarvalhoD
- 1DuduG
- 6S. NevesD
- 4Italo CabelinhoD
- 3Jarleysom AmurimD
- 11Diogo CabralF
- 15XavierM
- 21Yanis da RochaM
- 17João ReisD
- 18Tiago FerreiraF
- 9S. Yépié YépiéM
- 7Danio DjassiF
- 65WellingtonG
- 93Welinton JúniorF
- 38wermesonM
- 80Felipe FaveroM
- 8João CasimiroM
- 2EdneyF
- 79PaulinhoF
- 88JaderF
- 73Marlon JúniorD
Form going into Amarante vs Portimonense
Amarante
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Leixoes6 September 2026
- W1-0Benfica B30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Vizela22 August 2026
Portimonense
- L0-2Tondela12 September 2026
- L0-1away to União de Leiria6 September 2026
- L0-2Leixoes29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Benfica B21 August 2026
What these results say
- Amarante failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Amarante scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Portimonense did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Portimonense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Portimonense had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Amarante vs Portimonense
- 10 October 2026Amarante 1–2 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.