VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Osnabrück 1-1 Dynamo Dresden.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% VfL Osnabrück, 24% draw, 34% Dynamo Dresden — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfL Osnabrück at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32J. KrumreyG
- 27R. FabinskiD
- 24J. MüllerD
- 25N. WiemannD
- 31P. KammerbauerM
- 21A. BeckM
- 15B. JacobsenM
- 26F. WagnerM
- 42J. GómezM
- 22B. RiesselmannF
- 11R. MeißnerF
- 4J. Abu HannaD
- 10I. BadjieM
- 28K. FaberD
- 18L. FlachM
- 20T. JanottaD
- 7D. KyerehM
- 8L. MünstM
- 17L. RaimundF
- 1N. SauterG
- 22L. GrillG
- 32J. SternerD
- 6N. RappD
- 42F. MullerD
- 44S. StraudiD
- 18R. WagnerM
- 21T. RaschlM
- 24P. ČovićM
- 27N. HauptmannM
- 20B. BobzienM
- 9V. VermeijF
- 1T. SchreiberG
- 19A. RossipalD
- 7K. OkpalaF
- 34T. NeiningerD
- 17A. MuhamedbegovićD
- 10J. LemmerM
- 8L. HerrmannM
- 33C. DafernerF
- 11K. InanogluF
Form going into VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
VfL Osnabrück
- D1-1away to Holstein Kiel19 September 2026
- L1-3Hertha BSC13 September 2026
- W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig6 September 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum28 August 2026
Dynamo Dresden
- L1-2Hertha BSC19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Braunschweig12 September 2026
- L1-2VfL Bochum5 September 2026
- L3-5away to 1. FC Heidenheim29 August 2026
What these results say
- VfL Osnabrück scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for VfL Osnabrück.
- Dynamo Dresden did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
- 10 October 2026VfL Osnabrück 1–1 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 12 April 2025Dynamo Dresden 0–1 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
- 9 November 2024VfL Osnabrück 0–3 Dynamo Dresden3. Liga
- 2 April 2023VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Dynamo Dresden3. Liga
- 9 October 2022Dynamo Dresden 3–2 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
- 28 June 2020Dynamo Dresden 2–2 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.