SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 Energie Cottbus.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% SV Darmstadt 98, 23% draw, 42% Energie Cottbus — fair odds of 2.86, 4.35 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Energie Cottbus at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. SchuhenG
- 25W. MikelbrencisD
- 6P. PfeifferD
- 20A. VukotićD
- 18R. PetrettaD
- 5M. RichterM
- 17K. KlefischM
- 10N. VerkooijenM
- 7N. WeißhauptM
- 9Lee Ho-JaeF
- 36M. SmitF
- 16H. AkiyamaM
- 30A. BrunstG
- 41L. DuijvestijnM
- 11I. El KadiriF
- 44Y. FurukawaF
- 22L. KehlM
- 3F. KleinhanslD
- 19F. LakenmacherF
- 49Y. LührsD
- 1M. LotkaG
- 3H. RorigD
- 2K. ManuD
- 21Luca ErleinD
- 20A. BorgmannD
- 32L. BittencourtM
- 8Lukas MichelbrinkM
- 11M. HannemannM
- 10T. CiğerciM
- 7C. KinsombiM
- 31J. ButlerF
- 16R. MaloneD
- 5D. PelivanM
- 6J. HofmannM
- 23Fousseny DoumbiaD
- 9L. CopadoF
- 4T. CampulkaD
- 13Dmytro BohdanovF
- 19J. BoziarisM
- 29K. KratzschG
Form going into SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus
SV Darmstadt 98
- L1-5away to VfL Wolfsburg18 September 2026
- W2-1Arminia Bielefeld11 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern5 September 2026
- L0-1Hannover 9630 August 2026
Energie Cottbus
- D1-1FC St. Pauli20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Karlsruher SC13 September 2026
- D4-4away to VfL Wolfsburg5 September 2026
- L3-4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 August 2026
What these results say
- SV Darmstadt 98 conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- SV Darmstadt 98 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for SV Darmstadt 98 had three goals or more.
- Energie Cottbus scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Energie Cottbus failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Energie Cottbus conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
| 8 | Energie Cottbus | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus
- 10 October 2026SV Darmstadt 98 3–1 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus
SV Darmstadt 98
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Energie Cottbus
GoalsAssists
- J. Butler41
- T. Ciğerci41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.