Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Casa Pia 0-1 Santa Clara.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Casa Pia, 29% draw, 49% Santa Clara — fair odds of 4.55, 3.45 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Clara at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 18GeraldesD
- 3KalyD
- 43David SousaD
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 16SilviM
- 80L. OforiM
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 77B. PauwelsM
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 90CassianoF
- 21A. ZouinF
- 44Felipe SilvaD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 4João GoulartD
- 20A. JattaF
- 98JPM
- 17E. MaurinF
- 24S. PérezM
- 1Lucas FrançaG
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 4Pedro PachecoD
- 21Emanuel FernandesD
- 5Guilherme RomãoD
- 8José Luís Rocha TavaresM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 20Tiago RibeiroM
- 70Vinícius LopesF
- 9Gonçalo PaciênciaF
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosF
- 19YthalloD
- 11Welinton TorrãoF
- 22VitinhoM
- 17João VasconcelosM
- 99SorrisoF
- 3Henrique SilvaD
- 12NenecaG
- 73Léo JacóF
- 7Luis Fernando Santos OliveiraF
Form going into Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
Casa Pia
- W2-1away to Estoril20 September 2026
- L1-4FC Porto12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vitória SC6 September 2026
- L0-1Moreirense30 August 2026
Santa Clara
- D0-0SC Braga20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Arouca13 September 2026
- W4-0Rio Ave6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Alverca29 August 2026
What these results say
- Casa Pia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Casa Pia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Santa Clara went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Santa Clara scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
- 10 October 2026Casa Pia 0–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 18 April 2026Casa Pia 0–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 6 December 2025Santa Clara 1–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 1 February 2025Santa Clara 2–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 24 August 2024Casa Pia 0–2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 29 January 2023Casa Pia 2–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Casa Pia and Santa Clara
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.