Academico Viseu vs Estoril Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Academico Viseu 2-1 Estoril.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Academico Viseu, 27% draw, 22% Estoril — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Academico Viseu at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Academico Viseu vs Estoril
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 98EwertonG
- 75RobinhoD
- 41A. CorreiaD
- 2N. MichelisD
- 3Miguel BrauD
- 8C. KahramanM
- 7Luís SilvaM
- 31João GuilhermeM
- 14S. MesseguemM
- 47L. GohiM
- 33André ClóvisF
- 18C. FerreiraM
- 5Pedro BarcelosD
- 9M. BouldiniF
- 21Tomás DomingosD
- 6André CeitilM
- 10Á. ZamoraF
- 77PaulinhoF
- 22Nils MortimerF
- 1Marcos LavínG
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 35S. AmissahD
- 6Xavi SintesD
- 5A. TsounguiD
- 2Ricard SánchezM
- 44M. RobinM
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 21R. JurišićM
- 99R. GuitaneM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 7André LacximicantF
- 11N. OmerovićF
- 16M. TurkG
- 43fletcher loweG
- 42J. ArnolinD
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 4FerroD
- 17PeixinhoF
- 19Tiago Parreira ParenteD
- 3Fernando MedranoD
Form going into Academico Viseu vs Estoril
Academico Viseu
- W2-0away to Estrela20 September 2026
- W2-1Vitória SC12 September 2026
- W1-0away to GIL Vicente6 September 2026
- L0-3FC Porto29 August 2026
Estoril
- L1-2Casa Pia20 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga14 September 2026
- D0-0Arouca7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Benfica31 August 2026
What these results say
- Academico Viseu won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Academico Viseu scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Estoril did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Estoril conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Academico Viseu vs Estoril
- 10 October 2026Academico Viseu 2–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 1 December 2022Academico Viseu 3–2 EstorilTaça da Liga
- 16 February 2021Estoril 3–0 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 24 September 2020Academico Viseu 0–2 EstorilSegunda Liga
- 3 November 2019Estoril 3–1 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Academico Viseu and Estoril
Academico Viseu
GoalsAssists
- André Clóvis40
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.