SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SC Paderborn 07 0-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% SC Paderborn 07, 28% draw, 43% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfB Stuttgart at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 15N. NollG
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 25T. SchellerD
- 22M. HansenD
- 17L. CurdaM
- 28L. UlrichM
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 40G. VidovićM
- 23R. ObermairM
- 18M. PieringerF
- 30S. MarinoF
- 6T. BaackM
- 7O. Batista MeierM
- 20F. GötzeD
- 11S. MichelF
- 2Ruben MüllerD
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 1M. SchubertG
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerD
- 27S. TiggesF
- 41D. SeimenG
- 3R. HendriksD
- 24J. ChabotD
- 7M. MittelstädtD
- 4J. VagnomanM
- 16A. KarazorM
- 6A. StillerM
- 10C. FührichM
- 18J. LewelingM
- 26D. UndavM
- 9E. DemirovićF
- 17D. PejčinovićF
- 21G. PrömelM
- 44L. SauerF
- 47Y. SpaltD
- 20L. StergiouD
- 29Finn JeltschD
- 11B. El KhannoussM
- 1F. BredlowG
- 22L. AssignonD
Form going into SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
SC Paderborn 07
- W3-11899 Hoffenheim20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Borussia Dortmund12 September 2026
- L0-1SC Freiburg5 September 2026
- D0-0away to FSV Mainz 0529 August 2026
VfB Stuttgart
- L0-1Borussia Dortmund19 September 2026
- L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim12 September 2026
- W4-11. FC Köln4 September 2026
- L1-5away to Bayern München28 August 2026
What these results say
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- SC Paderborn 07 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
- 10 October 2026SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 31 January 2023SC Paderborn 07 1–2 VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal
- 23 May 2015SC Paderborn 07 1–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 20 December 2014VfB Stuttgart 0–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga