Benfica vs Vitória SC Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Benfica 2-0 Vitória SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 73% Benfica, 17% draw, 10% Vitória SC — fair odds of 1.37, 5.88 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 73% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benfica vs Vitória SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 6A. BahD
- 3A. CircatiD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 26S. DahlD
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 27RafaM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 21A. SchjelderupM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 22J. DuránF
- 34S. El KarouaniD
- 88Tiago FreitasM
- 8F. AursnesM
- 72A. CabralF
- 62J. NetoD
- 11D. LukebakioF
- 16ManuM
- 48O. ZychG
- 23T. StrataD
- 21T. BorevkovićD
- 28Thiago BalieiroD
- 13João MendesD
- 44L. DoucetM
- 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
- 17Miguel NogueiraM
- 20SamuM
- 7O. CamaraM
- 9A. JakupovicF
- 98Lucas FurtadoG
- 18Telmo ArcanjoM
- 2Miguel MagaD
- 19V. AnderssonM
- 82F. DiasD
- 16BeniM
- 6M. MitrovićM
- 29V. OuotroF
- 4Óscar RivasD
Form going into Benfica vs Vitória SC
Benfica
- L1-3away to FC Porto20 September 2026
- W3-1GIL Vicente13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Moreirense9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Maritimo5 September 2026
Vitória SC
- D1-1Moreirense20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu12 September 2026
- D0-0Casa Pia6 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga31 August 2026
What these results say
- Benfica scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Benfica had three goals or more.
- Benfica won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vitória SC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Vitória SC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Vitória SC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica vs Vitória SC
- 11 October 2026Benfica 2–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 21 March 2026Benfica 3–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 1 November 2025Vitória SC 0–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 19 April 2025Vitória SC 0–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 7 December 2024Benfica 1–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 11 February 2024Vitória SC 2–2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Benfica and Vitória SC
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis83
- G. Prestianni53
Vitória SC
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.